the “prediction” you are making

eturn or odds – the ratio between the payout and the stake • outcome – the “prediction” you are making So, for example, you could make at bet as follows: • wager – $10 • payout – $20 • return – 100% • outcome – UFABET

the FTSE (London Stock Exchange Index) to rise between 13:00 and 14:00 today Pretty easy, huh? So why bet on the financial markets? • Because it is easy • Because it less risky than trading (you can bet with as little as $1) • Because it exciting • Because you can make money That last point is important. You *can* make money. But you *can* also lose money, of course. In order to be profitable over the long-term, you need to find low-cost, mis-priced bets. What do we mean by that? Financial betting services are businesses. And like any business, they have expenses to cover and investors to please, and so they try to make money. And they make money by effectively charging “fees” on their bets. Except that they actually do not charge fees (such as $5 a bet) or commissions (such as 2% of the winnings), instead they use a spread or overround (two different ways of looking at the same concept, so we’ll just refer to it as a spread). This spread means that if the fair value of a bet is $x, 

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